Friday, November 12, 2010

Sir, May I Ask Why You Are Bunting?

First and second base occupied, nobody out in the third inning, top of the order coming up and the pitcher's on the ropes.  Nobody's scored yet; this could be the inning where the whole thing blows up.  Presumably your top on-base guys are coming up.  What now?  Be afraid.  Though the pitcher is actually the one who is scared out of his mind, you, the hitting team's manager are actually the one scared out of his mind.  How do I know?  You freekin' bunt.  You give up a chance at a putting up crooked numbers in order to stay out of a double play and give your team a chance to score one run on a sacrifice fly or two on a hit.
If your pitcher was at the plate, by all means, do your thing.  But, we'll so often find good hitters, even Hall of Fame level hitters asked to bunt in the most bizarre situations just to stay out of the double play. 
 Poor souls like Honus Wagner, who once laid down 27 sac bunts in a year in which he had a .909 OPS.  With that we look at one of the better young hitters who has been victimized by their manager's fear, Asdrubal Cabrera:
 At the ripe old age of 24, Cabrera has already sacrificed 37 times.  During his early career, he's hit into 38 double plays.  More importantly, the Indians' infielder has hit 87 doubles, more than twice the number of double plays he's hit into.  He's also walked 132 times.  The breakdown comes out something like this:  Cabrera hits into a double play once every 44 times he comes to the plate, walked once every 12 and hit a double once every 19 times he stepped up.  Yet, he's called upon to lay down a bunt once every 44 times or around 10 games, because he could hit into a double play once every 10 games.
The numbers that illustrate the insanity of having Cabrera bunt reside in his averages with runners on base:
Men on base - .831 OPS, 49 doubles.  Man on first base - .900 OPS, 90 hits, 24 GIDP.  Men on first and second - .836 OPS, 31 hits, six GIDP.
To add insult to stupidity, Cabrera has the same OPS against ground ball pitchers as he does fly ball pitchers, so nobody can say, "well, (insert Derek Lowe or who the heck ever) gets a lot of double plays.)
Most of Cabrera's DPs have been on the first pitch.  My suggestion:  miss on purpose, then hit a double.

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